Guest post written by Andy Langenkamp
Mr Langenkamp is a senior political analyst for ECR Research.
The freedom and openness that have done so much for Europe are being undermined by the threat of extremism, unrest at its geographical edges, and the rise of populism. There are times when Europe appears to be stuck in a glorious past. However, now the EU has little choice but to get its hands dirty. It cannot just safeguard exports and supply agreements. It needs to combine geopolitical action with its economic interests.
Countries that combine authoritarian leadership with capitalism are able to strike fast and hard. Russia’s occupation of Crimea is a case in point. Putin’s style is applauded in some areas of Europe. He makes adroit use of such channels to change Europe’s clenched fist into a flabby hand. Marine Le Pen’s Front National receives large sums from Russia and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has done some wheeling and dealing with Putin on the sly to foster closer collaboration. These are but a few examples of how the Kremlin inveigles itself into European populism, thus weakening Europe and undermining the attempts to address the Ukraine crisis. In any case, many European businesses are far from happy with the sanctions. Should Moscow manage to ‘infiltrate’ European politics in a big way, the already shaky front against Russia could crumble.
The planned Russian-Greek cooperation is worrying because Greece is a geostrategic hotspot. It’s located in a restive corner of the Mediterranean, near the Balkans, Turkey – with which it has a dismal relationship – and Syria. Since the start of the civil war in the latter country, and in the aftermath of the Arab revolutions/revolts, Greece has become even more important. Especially now that there is a chance of new eruptions in the Balkans as Bosnia, in particular, is politically unstable. From a maritime perspective, too, Greece is important. The Aegean Sea is pivotal to the shipping industry, to telecommunications, and also from a defensive angle. Meanwhile, Russian has one naval base in the Mediterranean, namely in Tartus (Syria) while the NATO has a base in Crete. A Greek collapse would also be a disaster if the country turns its back on the NATO. Finally, natural gas has been found in the waters surrounding Greece, which has aroused the interest of many players. Overall, it is no surprise that Moscow, Beijing, Washington and Brussels want to curry Greece’s favour. Of course, the austerity program imposed by Brussels means that the EU is its own worst enemy – even if the tough economic stance against the new government is justified in itself.
Apart from flirting with Russia, the Greek PM is accusing Europe of a myopic fixation on the economy. However, in all likelihood assorted defence and foreign policy advisers will make Angela Merkel and the other European leaders face the geopolitical facts. Eventually we could see a bridging deal between the ECB, the EU, the IMF on the one hand and Greece on the other, but not without the EU and Eurozone having incurred significant political damage as Putin and others continue to stir up trouble and won’t hesitate to pour salt into the wounds.
Because politicians are preoccupied with Greece, they have less time and political capital at their disposal to address the Ukrainian problems. Some countries view the problem from an economic perspective. That is to say, they want to safeguard their trade relationships with Russia. Others fear there will be no stopping Putin once the West lets him get away with murder; other countries could be waiting in the wings to seek confrontation with the West.
Putin does not want to wreck Ukraine completely; a failed state on his borders is no use to him. His main goal is to keep Ukraine out of the western camp and he may be willing to openly invade the Donbas to guarantee that outcome.
In addition to the Greek and Ukrainian problems, Europe faces rising populism alongside threats of extremism. Following Syriza’s victory, there is a chance that left-wing populists will come into power in Spain. In France, it is a real possibility that the right-wing Marine Le Pen will be addressed as Madame la Presidente in the not too distant future. Particularly populists on the right will benefit from fears of extremism. Electoral gains on this side will fuel tensions while attempts to tackle extremism are undermining liberties. Moreover, populists do not tend to make good team players. This will render it difficult to fight the euro crisis and come up with a communal strategy to face Russia.
Populism, geopolitical confrontation with Russia, and reactions to extremism are putting a lot of pressure on Europe; precisely at a time when the euro crisis could erupt again. A problem is that Europe is in the habit of defining every issue and every threat in financial terms while ignoring the geopolitics and it is out of practice when it comes to power politics. Unless politicians hone their skills in this area, Europe will remain an easy target for the likes of Putin.
Greek-Russian Cooperation: Another Thing Europe Has To Worry About - Forbes
