By Richard Spencer, Cairo 10:44PM BST 03 Jul 2013
Now that Mohamed Morsi has been ousted as Egypt's president by the army, Richard Spencer asks what happens next and how does this change the dynamic of the Arab Spring.
Egyptians wave national flags as fireworks light the sky over Tahrir Square Photo: AP
What happens next?
The "road-map" announced by the army is a swift one. The chief justice will be sworn in on Thursday as interim head of state, and will oversee a revision of the constitution to be followed by fresh parliamentary and presidential elections - preferably with simpler rules than those last year which stretched out over several weeks. The key question is whether the Muslim Brotherhood will be allowed to take part - and whether they will agree to do so.
Who is in charge?
Gen Abfulfattah al-Sisi, the defence minister, insists he has no pretentions to power. Judge Adly Mansour, chief justice of the Supreme Constitutional Court, is the new acting head of state. Mohammed Elbaradei, the former UN atomic agency chief, has taken on his now familiar role as a revolutionary eminence grise - he was the first politician to speak to the nation last night to back the new arrangements. But few would doubt that in reality power lies in the hands of the man who announced the coup to the Egyptian people, claiming in time-honoured fashion to be acting in their name - Gen Sisi himself.
Protesters use flares while demonstrating against Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi in Tahrir Square
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How will the Muslim Brotherhood react?
The coup is undoubtedly important for Egypt's future. The Brotherhood's reaction will have repercussions around the world. Mohamed Morsi won 5.7 million votes in the first round of last year's election, and 13.2 million in the subsequent run-off. The Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice party won more than 10 million votes in parliamentary elections.
The implicit threat of many Islamist leaders is simple: if we cannot win by democratic means, why should we take part?
The Brotherhood has spawned many of the world's Islamist terror groups, even while renouncing violence itself. If, however, it manages to present a more inclusive face it may yet find itself in the position of the ruling party in Turkey. Islamists there were forced out of office the first time they were elected, but are now the party of government. Other Islamist groups round the world will be watching.
What does this mean for the US and Barack Obama's Middle East policy?
The US now finds itself funding a military which has carried out a coup against a leader Washington has called democratically and fairly elected. Mr Obama has set great store, ever since his speech to the Muslim world in Cairo in 2009, of supporting pragmatic engagement as well as democratic reform. Now he has to choose between them, and the $1.3 billion (£850 million) grant to Egypt's military will be his first test. US Senator Patrick Leahy, chairman of the Senate subcommittee that oversees foreign aid, said his panel would review the amount, but reiterated that US aid is cut off when a democratically elected government is deposed by coup.
Most important still will be the new government promising to keep the peace treaty with Israel – as the Brotherhood did, but some parties oppose.
An Egyptian man stands next to a military armoured vehicle where Islamists supporting Mr Morsi gathered
How does this change the dynamic of the Arab Spring?
Egypt was the biggest scalp of the Arab Spring, and the restoration of military rule seems to bring it to a crashing halt. However, that will depend on whether elections are held soon. The coup could possibly burnish the "Spring's" reputation - its greatest critics said it was replacing military dictatorships with religious ones.
Will it affect Syria?
One report suggested the turning point for Gen Sisi was a rally where Mr Morsi and a succession of speakers supported the Sunni opposition in Syria in vivid terms. He is said to have recoiled from visions of a legion of hardened young militants returning to Egypt from the battlefront. He will want a more disengaged stance, though is unlikely to change Egypt's anti-Assad stance totally.
Fireworks are seen as army soldiers take their positions in front of protesters near the Republican Guard headquarters in Cairo
