Tuesday, November 27, 2012

How could Greece and Argentina – the new 'debt colonies' – be set free?

 Ha-joon

Ha-Joon Chang The Guardian, Sunday 25 November 2012 19.30 GMT

If nations were able to go bankrupt like companies it would benefit everyone, especially society's poorest

chains

Protesters wear chains in a protest against Greece's austerity measures. The burden of debt falls mostly on the weaker members of society. Photograph: Aris Messinis/AFP/Getty Images

Colonialism is back. Well, at least according to leading politicians of the two most famous debtor nations. Commenting on the EU's inability to deliver its end of the bargain despite the savage spending cuts Greece had delivered, Alexis Tsipras, the leader of the opposition Syriza party, said last week that his country was becoming a "debt colony". A couple of days later, Hernán Lorenzino, Argentina's economy minister, used the term "judicial colonialism" to denounce the US court ruling that his country has to pay in full a group of "vulture funds" that had held out from the debt restructuring that followed the country's 2002 default.

While their language was deliberately incendiary, these two politicians were making extremely important points. Tsipras was asking why most burdens of adjustment for bad loans have to fall on the debtor country and, within them, mostly on its weaker members. And he is right. As they say, it takes two to tango, so those who condemn Greece for imprudent borrowing should also condemn the imprudent lenders that made it possible.

Lorenzino was asking how we can let one court ruling in a foreign country in favour of one small group of creditors (who bought the debt in the secondary market) derail a painfully engineered process of national recovery. The absurdity of this situation becomes clear when we recall that, partly thanks to the default and subsequent debt restructuring, Argentina, expanding at close to 7% per year, has been the fastest growing Latin American economy between 2003 and 2011.

But there is far more at stake here than the national welfares of Greece and Argentina, important though they are. The Greek debt problem has dragged down not just Greece but the whole euro zone, and with it the world economy. Had the Greek debt been quickly reduced to a manageable level through restructuring, the euro zone would be in a much better shape today. In the Argentinean case, we are risking not just an end to Argentina's recovery but a fresh round of turmoil in the global financial market because of one questionable US court ruling.

Many people argue that, regrettable as they may be, such situations are unavoidable. However, when it comes to debt problems within our borders, we actually don't let the same situation develop. All national bankruptcy laws allow companies with too big a debt problem to declare themselves bankrupt. Once bankruptcy is declared, the debtor company and its creditors are forced to work together to reorganise the company's affairs, under clear rules.

First, a standstill is imposed on debt repayments – for as long as six months in the case of the debtor-friendly American bankruptcy law. Second, subject to the majority (or in some countries a super-majority of two thirds) of them agreeing, creditors are required to accept a debt reduction programme in return for a new company management strategy. This programme could involve outright reduction (or even cancellation) of debts, lowering of interest rates, and extension of the repayment period. Third, lawsuits by individual creditors are banned until there is an agreement, so that individual creditors cannot disrupt the restructuring process. Fourth, the claims of other stakeholders on the company are also taken into account, with wages being typically given "seniority" over debts.

Unfortunately, no mechanism like this exists for countries, which is what has made sovereign debt crises so difficult to manage. Because they don't have any legal protection from creditors in times of trouble, countries typically postpone the necessary restructuring of their economies by piling on more debts in the (usually unfulfilled) hope that the situation will somehow resolve itself. This makes the debt problem bigger than necessary.

What's more, because they cannot officially go bankrupt, countries face a stark choice. Either they default and risk exclusion in the international financial market (although countries can overcome it quickly, as Russia and Malaysia did in the late 1990s) or they have to opt for a de facto default, in which they pretend that they have not defaulted by making full repayments on their existing loans with money borrowed from public bodies, like the International Monetary Fund and the EU, while trying to negotiate debt restructuring.

The problem with this solution is that, in the absence of clear rules, the debt renegotiation process becomes lengthy, and can push the economy into a downward spiral. We have seen this in many Latin American countries in the 1980s, and we are seeing it today in Greece and other euro zone periphery economies.

Meanwhile, the absence of rules equivalent to the protection of wage claims in corporate bankruptcy law means that claims by weaker stakeholders – pensions, unemployment insurance, income supports – are the first to go. This creates social unrest, which then threatens recovery by discouraging investment.

It is not because people condoned defaulting per se that they came to introduce the corporate bankruptcy law. It was because they recognised that in the long run, creditors – and the broader economy, too – are likely to benefit more from reducing the debt burdens of companies in trouble, so that they can get a fresh start, than by letting them disintegrate in a disorderly way.

It is high time that we applied the same principles to countries and introduced a sovereign bankruptcy law.

How could Greece and Argentina – the new 'debt colonies' – be set free? | Ha-Joon Chang | Comment is free | The Guardian

Saturday, November 24, 2012

Protests erupt across Egypt after presidential decree

Peter Beaumont in Cairo The Guardian, Friday 23 November 2012 16.44 GMT

Opponents who accuse Mohamed Morsi of launching constitutional coup clash with Islamist president's supporters

Cairo protests over Mohamed Morsi's presidential decree. Link to this video

A febrile and polarised Egypt turned on itself on Friday as protests spread across the country, pitting supporters of the Islamist president, Mohamed Morsi, against his political opponents over a controversial new decree granting him extensive new powers.

Anti-Morsi demonstrators, who accuse the president of having launched a "constitutional coup" on Thursday, were reported to have set fire to the offices of the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice party, to which Morsi belongs, in the Suez Canal cities of Suez and Port Said.

Clashes also erupted between the two sides in the Mediterranean city of Alexandria, the southern city of Assiut and Giza, prompting Essam el-Erian, a leading figure in the FJP, to condemn the attacks as "acts of thuggery hiding behind political forces".

In Cairo, the two opposing camps gathered in large rival rallies in different parts of the capital. In a packed Tahrir Square, youths opposed to the decree fought intermittent battles with police firing volleys of teargas outside the French Lycée and American University. Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood meanwhile bussed in supporters from across the country to hear him address a rally outside the presidential palace in Heliopolis.

Morsi's decree orders the retrial of former president Hosni Mubarak, officials and security force members accused of killings during the country's revolution. Controversially, it also exempts all of Morsi's decisions from legal challenge until a new parliament is elected, as well as offering the same protection to the Islamist-dominated constituent assembly, which is drawing up the country's new constitution.

Morsi's aides said the presidential decree was to speed up a protracted democratic transition that has been hindered by legal obstacles. Morsi's rivals, however, were quick to condemn him as a new autocratic pharaoh who wanted to impose his Islamist vision on Egypt.

Morsi made the move in a week in which he had been buoyed by accolades from around the world for mediating a truce between Hamas and Israel. "I am for all Egyptians. I will not be biased against any son of Egypt," Morsi said on a stage outside the presidential palace, adding that he was working for social and economic stability and the rotation of power. "Opposition in Egypt does not worry me, but it has to be real and strong," he said in response to his critics.

He added: "There are weevils eating away at Egypt's nation," accusing some judges of planning to disband the upper house of parliament.

Morsi accused protesters involved in clashes this week in central Cairo of being "thugs" paid with money stolen during the old regime to disrupt the revolution.

Despite the attempts by Morsi and his aides to defuse the tension, insisting the new measures were temporary, those attending the rival rallies made clear that far more difficult issues were at stake for the two camps.

Among those who attended the Morsi rally was Nour din-Mohamed, a broadcast personality on a Muslim Brotherhood television channel noted for his sarcastic critiques of opponents of the movement. Surrounded by admirers, he said: "The people gathering in Tahrir are trying to blackmail the revolution. Revolution means change and they are standing in the way of it.

"The decree was a matter of necessity. The revolution was not just about changing Mubarak's name to Morsi, it was about transforming our society. That progress was being delayed. If Morsi had not pushed on this matter we would have pushed him harder."

As he spoke, a loudspeaker address from a makeshift platform accused those in Tahrir of trying to prevent the imposition of sharia law, while others chanted in favour of the implementation of Islamic law. In other signs that the move by Morsi may have a wider significance, many carried printed sheets of paper demanding that Egypt's media, which have been generally hostile to the decree, should also be "cleansed" after Morsi's moves against the judiciary on Thursday, which saw him sack the Mubarak-era chief prosecutor.

Isam Ashour, a 45-year-old sports teacher from near Alexandria, accused those in Tahrir Square of not "wanting stability". "They are just young people and the homeless. They want chaos to prevail or to protect their on interests."

In Tahrir Square, the symbol of the country's revolution last year, a different crowd assembled including revolutionary youth, political figures from the country's secular opposition groups and well-heeled Cairenes. "The people want to bring down the regime," shouted protesters in Tahrir, echoing a chant used in the uprising that forced Mubarak to step down, and "Get out, Morsi".

As security forces fired gas at protesters on streets leading to the ministry of the interior and French lycée, frequent clash points, others were engaged in heated conversations about the Muslim Brotherhood's latest moves.

Among them was Gamal Zahran, an independent MP from Port Said, who had been a member of the country's dissolved lower house of parliament.

"What Morsi has done should be considered a coup against constitutional legitimacy. Today you see people from the different civil and political groups in Egypt pitted against each other," he said. "The decree has polarised us. Not Muslim against secular. But between the Muslim Brotherhood and its Salafist allies and those who oppose them.

"Our demands are simple. Cancel the constitutional decree. Cancel the constituent assembly and form a new one. And dialogue between all parties."

The protests against the decree appear – for now at least – to have united the fissiparous and largely secular opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood. "The decree is basically a coup on state institutions and the rule of law that is likely to undermine the revolution and the transition to democracy," said Mervat Ahmed, an independent activist in Tahrir protesting against the decree. "I worry Morsi will be another dictator like the one before him."

Sherihan el-Meharak, a young pharmacist, was also in the square.

"I have come because I want to protect my freedom," she said. "Morsi is going against the country. I can't allow that to happen."

Morsi had tried to sweeten the pill of the decree with the announcement that he would end impunity for those involved in ordering and carrying out the killings of 800 protesters during the revolution and several hundred more in the months that followed, a popular measure. But his appropriation of new powers appears to have spectacularly backfired, exacerbating already deepening faultlines in Egyptian society.

While many accept the need for reform of a judiciary in which former Mubarak-era officials still have prominent positions, and which has been used by some to challenge the creation of new institutions, the way he has gone about it has escalated suspicions about the Brotherhood's plans for Egypt.

Samir Morcos, a Christian Coptic presidential aide, resigned in protest at the decree, saying that he had not been informed of the president's declaration beforehand and learned about it from the televised announcement by a presidential spokesman. He described the move and Morsi's reluctance to consult with his aides as "undemocratic".

It has not only been in Egypt that Morsi's move has been causing concern. On Friday a spokesman for the UN human rights commissioner, Navi Pillay, added to the mounting sense of crisis. "We are very concerned about the possible huge ramifications of this declaration on human rights and the rule of law in Egypt," said Rupert Colville at the United Nations in Geneva.

The EU also expressed its concern. "It is of utmost importance that the democratic process be completed in accordance with the commitments undertaken by the Egyptian leadership," a spokesman for Catherine Ashton, the EU foreign policy chief, said in a statement.

As the protests gathered pace, international criticism of the decree began to mount. The US state department called for calm and expressed concern. "The decisions and declarations announced on November 22 raise concerns for many Egyptians and for the international community," it said. "The current constitutional vacuum in Egypt can only be resolved by the adoption of a constitution that includes checks and balances, and respects fundamental freedoms, individual rights, and the rule of law consistent with Egypt's international commitments."

Protests erupt across Egypt after presidential decree | World news | The Guardian

Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi proves a deft, adroit and ruthless leader

 Ian Black

Ian Black, Middle East editor The Guardian, Friday 23 November 2012 20.07 GMT

 

Morsi's power grab and brokering of Gaza ceasefire are just two

Egyptian protesters

Egyptian protesters hold a banner depicting President Mohamed Morsi as a pharaoh during a demonstration over his presidential decrees. Photograph: Andre Pain/EPA

Mohamed Morsi has come a long way since he was derided as a "spare" when his name emerged as the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate for the Egyptian presidency following the withdrawal of a more charismatic candidate.

In the space of 24 hours this week the engineer-turned-politician has been praised internationally for brokering a ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinians in Gaza and excoriated at home as a "new pharaoh" who has seized dictatorial powers and betrayed the revolution that overthrew Hosni Mubarak last year.

It is not the first time Morsi has surprised friend and foe by combining deftness and ruthlessness – but always touching a raw nerve among those Egyptians who fear that, after all their hopes and sacrifices, they will end up being ruled by a "Mubarak with a beard".

Morsi was sworn in in July after a narrow election victory that was a triumph not only for democracy, but also for the long-banned Brotherhood, the world's oldest Islamist movement.

It was not supposed to happen that way. The original candidate of the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice party was Khairat al-Shater, a businessman who spent years in Mubarak's prisons but who was disqualified on a technicality. Morsi, by contrast, was a colourless backroom operator whose enemies waved tyres at his rallies to underline the "spare" jibe.

Still, in August he impressed many by outmanoeuvring the ageing generals who had dominated Egypt since forcing out Mubarak – and without a confrontation. Commentators called it Morsi's "night of power", an unmistakable reference to the Qur'an, which the Brotherhood calls "our constitution".

In September, Morsi was criticised for reacting slowly when demonstrators angered by an Islam phobic film stormed the US embassy in Cairo. The incident on the eve of his first official visit to Washington prompted Barack Obama's alarmingly tepid comment that Egypt was "not an ally but not an enemy". By comparison, the US secretary of state Hillary Clinton's lavish praise over his Gaza performance must have sounded sweet.

Naturally enough, it is in the domestic arena where Morsi has faced his biggest challenges. The Islamists – including ultra-conservative Salafis who oppose the president – and their enemies are deadlocked, so the decision to impose a solution on old-regime judges looks likely to cause further trouble.

Pleasing populist gestures towards the "martyrs" of last year's uprising – on pensions and retrials for those who killed demonstrators – were "clearly aimed at appropriating revolutionary legitimacy and using it to strengthen the position of the Muslim Brotherhood-controlled presidency", said the analyst Hesham Sallam.

"There is an issue here about the balance of power between the Brotherhood and the nationalists and liberals, who appear unable to unify themselves," warned Abdallah Homouda, who writes for Egypt's leading independent newspaper, al-Masry al-Youm. "The fear is that will leave the Brotherhood in a dominant position."

Many say Morsi has acted clumsily compared with his sophisticated approach to the military in the summer.

"Morsi inherited a country with a great number of very serious problems that nobody could address in months or very possibly in years," said the commentator Elijah Zarwan. "He came to power at a time when Egypt and the region were in crisis. His handling of some of these issues, including the war in Gaza, was effective and even surprisingly adroit. In other cases he has made mistakes. His handling of the judiciary has been probably his biggest. It is very difficult to see how he can climb down."

Others say it is a question of how much support the president can command. "This is a move that might be pulled off by an overwhelmingly popular national leader," said Issandr El-Amrani, who blogs from Cairo as the Arabist. "But [it] goes a little too far for someone elected by only 51% of the electorate in an ever-more divided country."

Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi proves a deft, adroit and ruthless leader | World news | The Guardian

Mohamed Morsi bars court challenges and orders Hosni Mubarak retrial

Peter Beaumont in Cairo guardian.co.uk, Thursday 22 November 2012 19.55 GMT

Egyptian president angers opponents with measures preventing courts from challenging any laws passed since he took office

Mohamed Morsi

Mohamed Morsi was instrumental in securing a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Photograph: Khaled Desouki/AFP/Getty Images

Egypt's president, Mohamed Morsi, has granted himself far-reaching powers and immunity from legal oversight as he ordered the retrial of his predecessor Hosni Mubarak over the killing of protesters during the country's revolution.

In a surprise move, Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood leader who was instrumental in securing a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas on Wednesday, issued a series of measures preventing Egypt's courts from challenging any laws or decrees passed since he assumed office in June.

The decrees prevent the courts from attempting to dissolve the upper house of parliament or the constituent assembly which is drawing up the country's new constitution, both dominated by his Islamist allies.

The declaration came barely 24 hours after Morsi was praised by US president Barack Obama for his role in bringing the latest round of the Gaza conflict to an end.

There was outrage from Morsi's political opponents, including the prominent opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei, who accused him of usurping authority and becoming a "new pharaoh".

"Morsi today usurped all state powers and appointed himself Egypt's new pharaoh," ElBaradei wrote on his Twitter account. "A major blow to the revolution that could have dire consequences."

Abdel-Halim Qandil, editor of as-Sawt newspaper, told al-Jazeera TV: "Morsi was elected a president. Now he is behaving like a king. This is a coup against the Egyptian revolution."

Shadi Ghazali, a revolutionary activist, said: "Morsi said he was president of all Egyptians, but in fact he is president of the Muslim Brotherhood only."

The move is likely to fuel growing public criticism that Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood have monopolised power while doing little to tackle Egypt's endemic woes. Thousands of demonstrators gathered in central Cairo on Thursday to protest for a fourth day running against Morsi's policies and to criticise the Muslim Brotherhood.

The decree for a retrial of the former president Mubarak and other ex-regime officials accused of killing protesters is designed to appease anger at what is seen as the widespread impunity they have enjoyed in the courts. But Morsi's method of doing it is likely to lead to further polarisation in the still fragile country.

Defending the move, Gehad al-Hadad, a senior adviser to the Muslim Brotherhood, said the new laws would become void when Egypt had a new parliament and constitution.

The Muslim Brotherhood's website said the moves were necessary to "protect the revolution and achieve justice", and claimed Morsi did not "choose to have all powers" but the move was forced on him by the corrupt old Mubarak system.

The move was doubly surprising as Morsi, who has had the power to proclaim laws since the parliament's lower house was dissolved in June, has been extremely circumspect in the use of his authority.

The declaration comes in the midst of an increasingly acrimonious battle over the writing of Egypt's new constitution. Liberal and Christian members withdrew from the constituent assembly during the past week in protest at what they say is the hijacking of the process by Morsi's allies, who they fear are trying to push through a document that will have an Islamist slant, marginalising women and minority Christians and infringing on personal liberties.

The constituent assembly cannot now face a legal challenge that might lead to it being dissolved, and the parliament's upper house, the Shura council, has also been put beyond the scope of a legal challenge to its constitutionality.

Several courts are looking into cases demanding the dissolution of both bodies. Parliament's lower chamber, also dominated by Islamists, was dissolved in June by a court decision on the grounds that the rules governing its election were illegal.

Under the new powers – described as temporary until the new constitution is drawn up, a process that has been extended by two months – the president is "authorised to take any measures he sees fit in order to preserve the revolution, to preserve national unity or to safeguard national security".

The statement says: "All constitutional declarations, laws and decrees made since Morsi assumed power … cannot be appealed or cancelled by any individual, or political or governmental body until a new constitution has been ratified and a new parliament has been elected. All lawsuits against them are declared void."

"We need stability and that's why we cannot afford to have this legal wrangling going on forever," Morsi's spokesman, Yasser Ali, told the Egyptian website al-Ahram. "The president wants to shorten the transitional period and have the new constitution and new people's assembly as soon as possible. This explains why [Morsi] wanted to give members of the constituent assembly more time to overcome their differences. The new declaration gives the assembly two more months to work on the constitutional draft."

He added: "Egypt's new constitutional declaration does not target any political group or person but is rather an attempt to achieve the demands of the 25 January revolution." Heba Morayef, of Human Rights Watch, said judicial reform as well as holding those responsible for crimes during the revolution was to be welcomed, but the new powers were alarming.

"While it is a good decision to appoint a new public prosecutor and reopen these cases, this was not the way to do it. In the coming months, these decrees mean he cannot effectively be challenged by the courts. And that's terrifying," she said.

Shadi Hamid, of the Brookings Institute think-tank, said: "This is not about amassing more power but preventing a challenge in the courts to the power he already he has. Morsi does not have much respect for those opposing him in any case. He sees them – and their use of the courts – as trouble-making and self-interested.

"He has a sense of democratic entitlement, His view is you've elected me for four years now get out of my way and let me do it. After four years if you don't like, elect someone else. But democratic entitlement can lead to demagoguery. He has been very careful up till now how he has used his powers, but this time he has overstepped himself."

Mohamed Morsi bars court challenges and orders Hosni Mubarak retrial | World news | guardian.co.uk

Thursday, November 22, 2012

Simón Bolívar's new tomb is monument to Hugo Chávez, say critics

Virginia Lopez in Caracas guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 21 November 2012 19.09 GMT

Hero of independence wars moved to dedicated mausoleum after being exhumed from Venezuela's National Pantheon

Construction on the Bolivar mausoleum, Caracas, 23/7/12

The Bolívar mausoleum in Caracas has been compared to an Andean peak – and a skateboard ramp. Photograph: Ariana Cubillos/AP

More than 180 years after his death, the independence hero Simón Bolívar will be given an ostentatious and controversial new resting place in Venezuela thanks to his most famous modern-day follower, Hugo Chávez.

The Venezuelan president has commissioned a £90m, white-tiled and domed mausoleum in Caracas to pay homage to his political inspiration, the nation's founding father.

But as Venezuelans await the twice-delayed inauguration, now scheduled for 17 December, many see the structure more as an emblem of their president's highly personalised style of leadership.

From the striking design and secretive planning to the separation of Bolívar's corpse from those of his revolutionary comrades, the 54m-high structure does not just dominate the skyline but also the debate about the best way to respect Latin America's most celebrated revolutionary.

Farruco Sesto, the minister of state responsible for the transformation of greater Caracas, said the idea of the mausoleum came about two years ago when Bolívar's bones were disinterred to test Chávez's personal theory that the Liberator – as he is known – was poisoned by political enemies

Portrait of Simon Bolivar (1783-1830)
A 19th-century portrait of Bolívar
Though the results of the autopsy never proved this suspicion, Sesto said the exhumation was so awe-inspiring that they decided Bolívar needed a resting place to match his glory.

"We were greatly moved by the experience of exhuming the remains, and we needed to feel that the Liberator had a dignified home.

"We know that his remains lay there, but that the Liberator walks among us in the streets accompanying this revolutionary process," Sesto said in a televised address.

Sesto, who headed the team of architects who designed and oversaw the construction, called the monument a sacred space defined by modern geometry.

But street-level descriptions range from the sublime to the utterly absurd. Some admirers liken the building – a white ascending curve flanked by a towering metal structure – to the snowy Andean peaks where Bolívar waged war against Spanish dominion. Critics and comics have compared it to a giant meringue or a skateboarding ramp.

"It is an architectural excess that completely ignores its surroundings and violates all the canons for intervening historical patrimony," said Graziano Gasparini, the country's leading authority on colonial architecture.

The mausoleum stands in the centre of old Caracas. It is flanked by an 18th-century military fortress and the National Pantheon, an unassuming neo-gothic church where Bolívar was previously buried alongside other independence heroes and illustrious Venezuelans.

It is the secrecy under which the monument was conceived and commissioned that Gasparini criticised most. "If they had called a contest among architects of the five countries Bolívar liberated it would have given the project greater relevance," he said. "Instead you have a building that imposes itself over the neighbouring structures and a government that decides everything behind closed doors. The whole thing isn't very democratic."

Since coming to power in 1998 Chávez has frequently cited Bolívar as the source of inspiration for his personal brand of Bolivarian socialism. From renaming the country – now the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela – to regional trade agreements such as the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas, which aims to resurrect Bolívar's dream of a united region, Chávez has found numerous uses of his historical symbolism.

Most recently, the government unveiled what it said was a reconstruction of Bolívar's face, which now stares down from billboards and murals across the country.

Historian Inés Quintero said this constant rehashing of history for political purposes was nothing new, but in the case of the mausoleum it contradicted Chávez's revolutionary rhetoric: "When you take Bolívar out of the National Pantheon and place him alone in a mausoleum, the other men buried there become a preamble to the sole hero."

She said this undermined a more revolutionary approach to history, in which social movements rather than individuals are the real agents of change.

Others see the mausoleum as the latest attempt by Chávez to link his name to that of the national hero. "It is an ugly monstrosity, a waste of money, and a monument to Chávez, not to Bolívar, who needs no further glory," said Bolívar's British biographer, John Lynch.

Until the monument is inaugurated, most Venezuelans can only watch, wait and speculate about its relevance to them. "A construction worker inside told me it was beautiful; that they used the most expensive black marble for the floor and that Bolívar lies inside a crystal bubble for all to see," said Alfredo Camacho, 24, who makes a living selling coconuts from his house.

"The engineers told us this whole area was going to be renewed, but for now all we've got is a fresh coat of paint."

Simón Bolívar's new tomb is monument to Hugo Chávez, say critics | World news | guardian.co.uk

Osama bin Laden death: secret emails give details of burial at sea

Staff and agencies guardian.co.uk, Thursday 22 November 2012 03.58 GMT

Body referred to as 'FedEx package' in cryptic military dispatches arranging disposal of al-Qaida leader's remains

Osama bin Laden's burial at sea was carried out amid high secrecy, US military emails reveal

Osama bin Laden's burial at sea was carried out amid high secrecy, US military emails reveal. Photograph: AP

Osama bin Laden was buried at sea from a US warship amid high secrecy that included his body being referred to as "the package" delivered by "FedEx", secret military emails reveal.

No sailors watched as the body of the al-Qaida leader – killed in a raid on his hideout in Abbottabad, Pakistan, on 2 May 2011 – was tipped from a board into the North Arabian Sea from aircraft carrier the USS Carl Vinson after brief Islamic rites.

The emails were obtained by the Associated Press under freedom of information. The news agency said they were heavily blacked out but nonetheless offered the first public disclosure of government information about the al-Qaida leader's death.

Bin Laden was killed by a navy Seal team that swooped on his compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan.

One email stamped secret and sent on 2 May by a senior navy officer briefly describes how bin Laden's body was washed, wrapped in a white sheet, and then placed in a weighted bag. According to another message from the Vinson's public affairs officer, only a small group of the ship's leadership was informed of the burial.

"Traditional procedures for Islamic burial was followed," the 2 May email from Rear Admiral Charles Gaouette reads. "The deceased's body was washed (ablution) then placed in a white sheet. The body was placed in a weighted bag. A military officer read prepared religious remarks, which were translated into Arabic by a native speaker. After the words were complete, the body was placed on a prepared flat board, tipped up, whereupon the deceased's body slid into the sea."

Earlier, Gaouette, then the deputy commander of the navy's Fifth Fleet, and another officer used code words to discuss whether the helicopters carrying the Seals and Bin Laden's body had arrived on the Carl Vinson.

"Any news on the package for us?" he asked Rear Admiral Samuel Perez, commander of the carrier strike group that included the Vinson.

"FedEx delivered the package," Perez responded. "Both trucks are safely en route home base."

The emails include a reference to the intense secrecy surrounding the mission and why few records were held. "The paucity of documentary evidence in our possession is a reflection of the emphasis placed on operational security during the execution of this phase of the operation," Gaouette's message reads.

Recipients of the email included Admiral Mike Mullen, then the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, and General James Mattis, the top officer at US Central Command. Mullen retired from the military in September 2011.

The Obama administration has kept a tight hold on materials related to the Bin Laden raid. The AP said that in response to separate requests from the AP for information about the mission, the defence department replied in March that it could not locate any photographs or video taken during the raid or showing Bin Laden's body. It also said it could not find any images of Bin Laden's body taken while it was on board the Vinson.

The Pentagon said it could not find any death certificate, autopsy report or results of DNA identification tests for Bin Laden, or any pre-raid materials discussing how the government planned to dispose of Bin Laden's body if he were killed.

The defence department also refused to confirm or deny the existence of helicopter maintenance logs and reports about the performance of military gear used in the raid. One of the stealth helicopters that carried the Seals to Abbottabad crashed during the mission and its wreckage was left behind. People who lived near Bin Laden's compound took photos of the wrecked chopper.

The AP has lodged an appeal requesting more information from the defence department. The agency said the CIA, which ran the Bin Laden raid and has special legal authority to keep information from ever being made public, had not responded to requests for records about the mission.

Osama bin Laden death: secret emails give details of burial at sea | World news | guardian.co.uk

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

John McAfee: people of Belize should rise up against 'dictatorship'

Patrick Barkham guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 21 November 2012 00.50 GMT

Internet entrepreneur, wanted for questioning of murder of businessman, says he is victim of abuse by Belize police

John McAfee

John McAfee says he is a victim of Belize's Gang Suppression Unit, which is tasked with tackling drug crime in the country. Photograph: Reuters

John McAfee, the multimillionaire internet entrepreneur wanted for questioning over the murder of an American businessman in Belize, has called on local people to rise up against the Central American country's government, which he says has turned into a dictatorship.

McAfee, described as a "person of interest" after Gregory Faull, 52, was found with a gunshot wound to his head at his house close to McAfee's home, told the Guardian he was still in the country and had no intention of handing himself in. Speaking from a Belizean telephone number, he confirmed he was the author of a colourful blog declaring his innocence and detailing the way he had returned to his home in various elaborate disguises.

"Of course it's me," the 67-year-old founder of the antivirus software company McAfee, said of the blog. He described the suggestion he was a suspect in the murder as absurd and added: "What earthly motive could I have had?"

Describing himself as a victim of abuse by the Gang Suppression Unit (GSU), a division of the Belize police department which tackles drug crime, McAfee said he would not be safe if he gave himself up to the police. "The last person who turned himself in was handcuffed behind his back and shot 14 times – that's not a good track record for following suit," he says, referring to the case of Arthur Young, a reported gang member who was shot dead by police earlier this year when officers claimed he attempted to disarm them.

"My big fear is that the world will not catch up with the system of injustice here in Belize and hundreds of thousands of people will continue to suffer," said McAfee. "The government has basically turned into a dictatorship by constitutional amendments."

McAfee, who made millions after selling his stake in the company he founded, as well as creating other successful Silicon Valley start-ups, has compared himself with Julian Assange, and relocated to Belize three years ago after selling properties across America.

Describing himself as "a libertarian", he has blogged about his love life with a string of young local women and his enthusiastic attempts to find natural antibiotics in the rainforests of Belize.

His creation of a jungle laboratory for this purpose, and acquisition of numerous guns to protect himself, led to suspicions about his activities and a raid by the GSU in April of this year. "They claimed I had a big meth lab on my property – that's the most absurd thing," he said. "The GSU has abused hundreds of people in this country abominably. I'm just one of those people and they've abused me far less than they've abused others."

McAfee said he had fruitlessly sought an apology from the government for his treatment, which he claimed included detention in the blazing sunshine for 14 hours without food or water. Since then, he said, he had been harassed by the Belizean authorities.

"I think that international attention to injustice frequently fixes injustice – there is nothing wrong with the Belizean people and Belize is the most beautiful place in the world," he said, and hoped that "international support" would help local people "remove these injustices on their own".

McAfee said when he first heard of Faull's murder he believed he had been accidentally killed by shadowy government forces that had intended to kill McAfee. Of one theory that McAfee shot Faull because he poisoned McAfee's dogs after a row over their barking, McAfee said: "I knew at the time he could not have killed my dogs. He [Faull] was a dog lover."

McAfee, who had a long battle with alcohol and drug abuse as a younger man, said his "greatest success" in life was not creating multibillion pound businesses but remaining clean and sober since 1983, when he first entered Alcoholics Anonymous.

Dismissing the "sensationalist" media coverage of his case, he said he objected to the portrayal of him as paranoid. "I don't see myself as paranoid," he said.

John McAfee: people of Belize should rise up against 'dictatorship' | World news | guardian.co.uk

John McAfee: 'I don't see myself as paranoid'

 Patrick Barkham

Patrick Barkham The Guardian, Tuesday 20 November 2012 20.00 GMT

The eccentric software entrepreneur is on the run, a 'person of interest' in the murder of a neighbour in Belize. But who is the man behind the headlines? He gets in touch with the Guardian to protest his innocence

John McAfee … 'He's clearly trying to mess with everybody's heads.'

John McAfee … 'He's clearly trying to mess with everybody's heads.' Photograph: Reuters

The name McAfee is ubiquitous and boring, a piece of antivirus software that pops up on computer screens around the world. The man behind this reassuring piece of technology is rather less reassuring and certainly not dull. John McAfee, a multi-millionaire dotcom guru, is on the run from police on the tropical island of Ambergris Caye. The authorities want to question McAfee, who is 67, about the murder of his neighbour, Gregory Faull. Now, according to a blog purportedly written by McAfee, the American entrepreneur is protesting his innocence and gleefully revealing how he hid from police by burying himself in the sand and by pretending to be a drunk German tourist.

The story of McAfee's rise and fall is impossibly rich and strange. McAfee has likened his predicament to Julian Assange's; others see him as a Kim Dotcom figure, a playboy-on-the-run, a poster boy for the decadent libertarianism of the dotcom generation. But McAfee is harder to pin down. Until the tanned, rich, priapic, yoga-loving eccentric hands himself in, he exists for all of us only on the internet. To some, McAfee is a gun-toting fiend and a fugitive from justice; in McAfee's eyes, he is a teetotal tragic victim of a corrupt state and media sensationalism, a philanthropist dedicated to cleansing rural Belize of crime and poverty. People who know him variously describe him as generous, paranoid, impulsive and eccentric. Is he mad? Is he bad? Who is John McAfee?

It is hard to know what is real and what is not in McAfee's story. He was born in England but was raised in Virginia. He still speaks in a courtly, southern style and is still emotionally scarred by his heavy-drinking father, who McAfee says, regularly beat him and his mother. Drugs – their presence and absence – have been one constant in his life. He drank heavily as a student, and was kicked out of university in Louisiana where he was studying for a PhD in mathematics because he slept with one of his undergraduates, who became his first wife. McAfee went on the same Nepalese hippie trail as Steve Jobs, the founder of Apple, and was fired from an early job for buying marijuana. In 1969, McAfee discovered LSD while creating computerised timetables for a train company. By 1983, he had risen to become director of engineering for a Californian tech company but, according to an eBook rushed out by Wired journalist Joshua Davis who interviewed McAfee at length this year, he was also a voracious cocaine addict, who also sold the drug to his subordinates. He lost his wife, his job, his beloved dog and eventually turned to Alcoholics Anonymous. He claims he has been sober ever since.

A few years later, McAfee learned of one of the first computer viruses. He was not a programming wizard but, at his home in California, his employees devised some software to disarm viruses. What was really revolutionary was the way McAfee gave his product away digitally, via an online bulletin board. Soon he had 30 million users and by 1990 was collecting $5m a year from corporate licensing fees. As a student he supported his drinking habit by working as a door-to-door salesman and he never lost this panache; his hyping of virus threats saw his company valued at half a billion dollars by 1994. Apart from establishing a new model for e-commerce by giving away his software, McAfee's other real legacy, says Davis, was the marketing of his paranoia. "What he was very successful at is infecting the rest of us with his own paranoia, which is an extraordinary accomplishment." Two years ago, McAfee's company was bought by Intel for $7.68bn but McAfee had long ago sold his $50m-$100m stake. To those who portray McAfee's life as one of squandered opportunities to become the next Steve Jobs, Davis says: "He's a guy who comes up with ideas. As a start-up guy he's been wildly successful."

For two decades, he lived the quirky life of a dotcom entrepreneur with his second wife, Judy, in a mansion in the Colorado Rockies. He says he sold another internet telephony start-up, Tribal Voice, for $17m in 1999, founded a yoga institute, wrote books about spirituality and helped build a rehab centre in Hawaii. Around the time of his divorce 10 years ago, he discovered lightweight aircraft called "trikes" and learned how to fly these machines a few metres above the deserts of New Mexico. He called this insanely dangerous new sport "aero trekking", built a desert ranch with an airstrip and hung out with a bunch of adrenalin junkies who called themselves Sky Gypsies. Five years ago, when he first met the journalist Jeff Wise, who, like Davis, has extensively researched his life, McAfee said: "Success for me is, can you wake up in the morning and feel like a 12-year-old?"

Four years ago, there was an abrupt change of direction. McAfee began selling his properties in Hawaii, New Mexico, Colorado and Texas. After apparently divesting himself of his US-based wealth, McAfee bought a villa on Ambergris Caye after seeing it on Google Earth. "He went to Belize because he could act out his ultra-libertarian dreams," thinks Wise. It may have been a rejection of materialism but moving to Belize was also, Wise and Davis agree, motivated by McAfee's fear that his wealth would be gobbled up by lawsuits – some serious, some trivial. Of most concern was a fatal aero trekking accident which caused the death of McAfee's nephew, Joel Bitow, who was flying 61-year-old passenger Robert Gilson. Gilson's family launched a $5m claim against McAfee.

The semi-retired entrepreneur flung himself into life in Belize, setting up a cigar manufacturer, a coffee distributor and a water-taxi service. When he bumped into Allison Adonizio, an attractive 31-year-old microbiologist on an extended vacation, he became entranced by the idea of finding natural antibiotics in the Belizian rainforest – he'd fought off digital diseases, now he could fight organic ones.

So he did what millionaires do: he offered Adonizio the job of a lifetime and built her a lab in a new jungle property. According to an interview Adonizio gave to Wise, however, she revealed she was also tasked with another of McAfee's preoccupations: finding a herbal compound to enhance the female libido. Then, it seems, McAfee got distracted, and began hanging out in Lover's Bar, a terrible karaoke shack and brothel not far from his jungle home. His girlfriend of more than a decade – whom he had been with since she was 19 – left, as did Adonizio, and McAfee took up with a series of local women, including a gun-toting 16-year-old. He became passionate about ridding a local village, Carmelita, of crime and drug trade: he donated money for a school canteen, built a police station, gave the police rifles and batons, and began paying them. Increasingly fearful for his safety, he imported pump-action shotguns and hundreds of rounds of ammunition to protect his compound. He started employing local gangsters but says he did so because they threatened to kill him. At Davis' final meeting with McAfee in August – during which he tormented the journalist with a game of Russian roulette – he found the millionaire living with five young women.

To the government, McAfee's manic activity looked like that of a drug lord. McAfee's compound was stormed by armed members of Belize's commando-style Gang Suppression Unit in April this year. McAfee was freed after no illegal drugs of any kind were found. Briefly detained, McAfee was free but still a "person of interest" according to the authorities. And then, on 11 November, his life really began to spiral out of control.

Gregory Faull's body is removed by detectives in Belize following his death. Gregory Faull's body is removed by detectives in Belize following his death. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Gregory Faull, a 52-year-old expat American businessman who lived near McAfee, was found in a pool of blood with a single gunshot wound to his head. Like other neighbours, he had complained to McAfee about the noise from the half dozen dogs McAfee kept at his home. The Belize police said McAfee was "a person of interest" and the entrepreneur went on the run, claiming this was the latest harassment of him. He feared for not just his liberty but for his life. Since then, McAfee has revealed more extraordinary stories: he claims the police poisoned his dogs, that he hid from them by burying himself in sand with a cardboard box over his head, and then returned to the crime scene in an assortment of elaborate disguises. Most recently, he has offered a $25,000 reward for the "capture of person or persons responsible for Mr Faull's murder".

Since then, McAfee has attracted saturation media coverage. Is he "bonkers" as the Belize prime minister said? Or is he oppressed? Or has the former addict returned to drugs? In 2010, McAfee posted about MDPV, a psychoactive stimulant found in bath salts, on a drugs message-board. He found it "the finest drug ever conceived, not just for the indescribable hyper sexuality but also for the smooth euphoria and mild comedown". More recently, MDPV has gained the alarmist soubriquet "the zombie drug" after a user chewed the face of another man in Florida. McAfee posted about how he was producing MDPV but then told Davis this was all an elaborate prank to try to generate 1,000 posts on the web forum. "My life is fucked up enough without drugs, and always has been," McAfee told Wired magazine. Most recently, McAfee blogged: "I have repeatedly stated I do not do drugs and am seriously opposed to drugs."

If it sounds weird that McAfee would lie about drugs, this deceit (or not) perfectly encapsulates his character. In hacker culture, messing with people's heads is called "social engineering". As Wise writes: "McAfee's undertakings in this vein have been as plentiful and spontaneous as his ventures in capitalism, and range from the sprawling to the picayune." McAfee appears to have posted all kinds of untruths about himself on the internet – about where he lives, and what he does. "One of his hobbies is he loves to hoax the press – that's one of his great joys in life," says Wise.

Is the blog another trick? Both Davis and Wise believe the blog is genuinely written by McAfee. But before he began it, the people he subjected to more myths and stunts than anyone else were journalists. This profile of McAfee is heavily reliant on the hard work of two American journalists who have got closer to McAfee than anyone else: Joshua Davis and Jeff Wise. Can we trust their accounts? Davis's book is lucid but Wise is critical of his rival for publishing "McAfee's often outlandish claims without qualification". And McAfee has taken to his blog to slander Wise for making "a life work out of smearing my character", alleging it was because his entourage once sent Wise's wife incriminating pictures of the journalist with another woman on his first assignment with McAfee. Wise says these allegations are "absolutely ridiculously false" and a classic example of McAfee's modus operandi. "It's a fine line between clever PR and outright lying," says Wise. "He's impulsive. He likes to control people. He likes to get attention, get people to do what he wants to do, and especially do what they don't want to do."

"At the moment he's very clearly trying to mess with everybody's heads," says Davis, who spoke to McAfee on the phone two days ago. He describes him as "extremely intelligent, extremely paranoid". "I asked him: 'What is the end game?' and he said: 'Stay out of custody.'" Davis thinks he is deliberately trying to confuse people – a rational tactic by a man on the run. After six months investigating McAfee's claims about his persecution by the Belizean authorities, Davis concludes that McAfee is mistaken. "I'm more inclined to believe the Belizean authorities raided him in April because they just didn't understand who this guy was and what he was doing."

Researching McAfee through the internet and secondary sources, I feel no closer to finding out who he really is. Just as we are going to press, McAfee emails me with a number to call him on. Is the blog really him? "Of course it's me," he says in a calm voice, calling me "sir" throughout our 10-minute conversation. The suggestion he is a "person of interest" in the murder of Faull is "absurd", he says. "What earthly motive could I have had?" One theory was that McAfee believed Faull had poisoned his beloved dogs. "I knew at the time he could not have killed my dogs – he was a dog lover," he says of Faull. He says he is still in Belize and has no intention of handing himself in. "The last person who turned himself in was handcuffed behind his back and shot 14 times." He hopes to draw attention to the injustices in Belize, the abuse of "hundreds" of local people by the GSU and the country's retreat from democracy. He wants local people to force the resignation of members of the current government, including the prime minister. "Even the most sheep-like people will say, 'boot these people out,'" he says of the regime.

If McAfee is famously tricksy, what does he think of his unofficial biographers? Is Davis's account reliable? "Absolutely not," claims McAfee but when I ask for details he only objects to Wired magazine using a photograph of him topless, wielding a shotgun. He has not read Davis's eBook but takes issue with the portrayal of himself as paranoid. "I don't see myself as paranoid. In April this year 42 soldiers stormed my compound and held me in the blazing sunshine for 14 hours without food or water."

McAfee says he is not interested in promoting his "legacy". What is his greatest success? "My greatest success was getting off of drugs and alcohol in 1983. That was the most difficult thing I've done." And now? "I intend to stay in Belize," says the multimillionaire on the run, "because this is my home."

John McAfee: 'I don't see myself as paranoid' | World news | The Guardian

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

John McAfee starts blog documenting life on the run from Belize police

Matt Williams in New York guardian.co.uk, Monday 19 November 2012 17.24 GMT

Software engineer has been evading authorities who want to question him about the murder of his neighbour Gregory Faull

Belize police station John McAfee

Belizean police want to question anti-virus software pioneer John McAfee about the murder of his neighbour Gregory Viant Faull. Photograph: Henry Romero/Reuters

Fugitive software pioneer John McAfee appears to have started a blog about his life on the run from Belizean authorities, charting the disguises he claims to have used to evade police and spy on their investigation.

McAfee, named by police in Belize as a "person of interest" in the murder of American businessman Gregory Viant Faull, has protested his innocence, insisting he is the victim of state harassment.

Now he claims to have returned to his residence in San Pedro in the days after his disappearance and watched police search his property. He claims to have seen police dig up the bodies of four dogs he says they poisoned, before chopping off their heads and reburying them.

He did so, he claims, while dressed first as a peasant hawker and then as a drunk German tourist.

The allegations appear in the blog apparently written by McAfee, which he says he plans to update regularly, either while on the run or if captured.

"I have pre-written enough material to keep this blog alive for at least a year," he states in the latest post launched Monday.

Faull was found dead at his home in San Pedro on 11 November with a gunshot wound to his head.

Police described McAfee as a "person of interest" whom they wanted to question in relation to the death. The two men allegedly quarrelled about the dogs McAfee kept as his home, but McAfee has claimed that he "barely knew" the victim.

Since going on the run, the anti-virus company founder has kept in regular contact with American media, telling CNBC in an interview on Friday that he will fight the allegations "as long as I'm still breathing".

He added that he was refusing to hand himself in to authorities as he feared he would be killed in the cells before a trial took place.

The 67-year-old also alleged harassment at the hands of Belize's notorious Gang Suppression Unit (GSU), an arm of the police that has been accused of abuses in the past.

"Things do not operate here as they do in the states," he said, adding: "We are living in a near dictatorship where the legal system is subservient to the cabinet."

Responding, Belize's prime minister Dean Barrow has said he believed McAfee is "bonkers".

The fugitive's apparent blog – whoismcafee.com – alludes to the mental strain that being on the run may cause him.

McAfee writes that he was driven to return to his property out of concern that unless he knew what was going on in the murder investigation "my chances of coming out of this intact, both emotionally and physically, were slim".

He claims that he returned to his residence two days after going on the lam, but in disguise so that the authorities would not notice him.

In detail, he explains how he used shoe polish to darken his skin and stuffed his cheeks with bubble gum to make his face look fatter.

"I stuffed a shaved down tampon deep into my right nostril and died the tip dark brown – giving my nose an awkward, lopsided, disgusting appearance," he wrote in a post dated 19 November.

The disguise, completed with rags instead of his normal clothes, was enough to fool a reporter hanging around his complex, McAfee claims.

In a further boast, the fugitive says he also pretended to be a drunk German tourist in swimming trunks, oversized Hawaiian shirt and a bandaged face, "yelling loudly at anyone who would listen, 'Leck mich um ausch!'".

"At 67 years of age it was quite a spectacle," McAfee wrote.

While at his property he spoke to the man who discovered Faull's body and watched the police operation at his home, McAfee further claims. His blogpost states that officers searched his home seven times.

"What I discovered is that the police are more concerned with finding me than catching Mr Faull's killer," he wrote.

McAfee goes on to offer a $25,000 reward for the "capture of person or persons responsible for Mr Faull's murder".

It is claimed that the blog is being maintained with the help of Chad Essley, who describes himself as a graphic novelist working on a publication of McAfee's story. In a separate blog, Essley says McAfee's website is authentic.

The British-born computer programmer built up a personal fortune as the founder of McAfee anti-virus software. He moved to Belize in 2008. But it is believed that his wealth has dwindled in recent years.

There has been past concern over McAfee's mental health. In the interview with CNBC, he brushed off reports that he had played Russian roulette with a loaded gun. "My point was life isn't exactly what you see," he said.

John McAfee starts blog documenting life on the run from Belize police | World news | guardian.co.uk

Sunday, November 18, 2012

As rockets fly, the Gaza image and propaganda war grinds on

By Dan Murphy, Staff writer / November 17, 2012

 

So far, the Gaza conflict between Israel and Hamas is as much about muscle-flexing, installing terror in the enemy, and image management as it is about the sadly mounting toll of the dead.

Smoke rises during an explosion from an Israeli forces strike in Gaza City. Israel bombarded the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip with nearly 200 airstrikes early Saturday widening a blistering assault on Gaza rocket operations by militants to include the prime minister's headquarters, a police compound and a vast network of smuggling tunnels. Hatem Moussa/AP

The blossoming Gaza war is even more than most wars about image and propaganda. Israel wants to set an image of implacable resolve to confront and destroy Hamas "terror." Hamas wants to set an image of implacable resolve to confront Israeli "terror" and "occupation." Both are trying to sway the political discourse inside the other's territory with this image-making.


Dan Murphy

Staff writer

Dan Murphy is a staff writer for the Monitor's international desk, focused on the Middle East. Murphy, who has reported from Iraq, Afghanistan, Egypt, and more than a dozen other countries, writes and edits Backchannels. The focus? War and international relations, leaning toward things Middle East.


Recent posts

 

Both their acts of violence and their propaganda, mostly online, are the tools with which they try to do that.

Every day since Wednesday, the ante has been upped. Israel assassinates Al Qassam Brigade (Hamas's military wing) chief Ahmed Jabari to send a message that rocket fire from Gaza must stop. The response? A barrage of missile fire from Gaza in the past four days, 737 rockets and mortars in all, more than the 723 fired over the course of the first 10 months of the year. The message from Hamas: You attack us, we respond even harder.

Israel intensifies its air campaign over Gaza. Hamas's response? Launching long-range rockets from its arsenal that it had withheld from use until now, firing at both Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Tel Aviv, Israel's largest city and commercial hub, was threatened with aerial assault for the first time since 1991, when Saddam Hussein launched scud missiles toward the town. For Jerusalem, it was a stunning development: the first air raid sirens to sound there in history. The message from Hamas: We are developing a deterrent that we're willing to use on population centers.

The Israeli response to that? Calling up reservists and laying the ground work for an invasion of Gaza. While the decision has not been taken to go in, the posturing in that direction has put the situation on a knife's edge, since a ground assault would likely be a bloodier replay of the three-week Israeli invasion of Gaza in 2008 that ended with 1,200 Palestinians and 13 Israelis dead, and massive destruction to Gaza's infrastructure.

Who is Hamas? 5 things you should know.

Israel insists its targeting is precise and focused on militants. Hamas makes no such claim, and, in fact, can't; the rockets fired from Gaza are the very definition of indiscriminate, hugely imprecise and more likely to kill civilians than anyone else. Hamas counters that far more of its civilians die at Israeli hands than vice versa, and its rockets the only tools at their disposal.

Israel has taken a hyper-aggressive approach to the war itself and its online image. With the decision to target civilian facilities of the Hamas government in Gaza today (the four-story office of Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh in Gaza City was leveled, for instance), it appears to be sending the message to all Hamas officials that they're vulnerable to assassination. Fear, in many Israeli leaders' thinking, is the best weapon to force Hamas to give up its sporadic armed campaign against the Jewish state.

That may prove wise, or deeply unwise. Hamas in its own propaganda insists that it won't be deterred from resistance by the blood of "martyrs." And the historically disproportionate death toll when Gaza fights Israel (which has been maintained so far this time, with 3 Israelis killed against 40 Palestinians since Wednesday) tends to feed hatred against the Jewish state and a desire for revenge inside Gaza. That is, more willing recruits to fight.

But at least one can grasp the Israeli point of view, the frustration that leads to hope that intense bombing will create peace. Harder to understand is the Israeli online media strategy, which seems designed to preach exclusively to the choir with hyper-macho bluster.

The country has been rolling out gun-camera video of many of its aerial attacks inside Gaza, apparently to make the case that it uses precision targeting. The first such video issued was of the Wednesday assassination of Hamas commander Mr. Jabari as his car drove through one of Gaza City's narrow streets, the single event that led to the current state of war.

But will this help it to convince international folks without strong allegiances, or who may lean a little in a pro-Palestinian direction, to see things Israel's way? After the killing of Jabari, the IDF released a poster of him with the word "Eliminated" in big, white letters. When sharing a video of an attack on a Hamas commander's home in Gaza today that appeared to be hosting a weapons cache, judging by secondary explosions, an IDF spokesman included the twitter hashtag #stoptherockets. (There are other air strikes on Gaza in which no secondary explosions are apparent).

He obviously mean the rocket fire from Gaza, which has surged since Wednesday. But Israel's fire into Gaza has been far more lethal than vice versa. In another tweet on Thursday, the official IDF spokesperson's account shared a video of a rocket being fired from a residential area inside Gaza with the comment, "Would you raise your child in such a neighborhood?"

I'm quite certain that most Gaza parents are not at all happy about that, but it's not as if they have much choice. The majority of Gaza's 1.5 million residents today are Palestinian refugees who were pushed into the strip upon Israel's creation in 1948 and their descendants. Gaza is not allowed to have an airport or a seaport, and only a trickle of people are allowed to leave through either Egyptian or Israeli territory each year. Moving is quite simply not an option.

More interesting still was the threat issued on Wednesday: "We recommend that no Hamas operatives, whether low level or senior leaders, show their faces above ground in the days ahead." Hamas members are well aware they're targets. The point of the twitter conversation is to speak to a broader audience.

After the three week Operation Cast Lead in December 2008 and January 2009, Israel's international reputation took a hit because of the large number of Palestinian civilian casualties. Its sprawling media operation created since in part reflects frustration that the country is being unfairly maligned, and a belief that better military communication can fix that. Writing for Foreign Policy, Michael Koplow thinks they're going about it the wrong way:

"But the IDF's barrage of tweets indicates that it has not learned some important lessons from its last major incursion into Gaza. Operation Cast Lead, carried out in December 2008 and January 2009, was a tactical military victory that came at a costly price. The large numbers of Palestinian civilian casualties and images of destruction led to a renewed and vigorous effort to isolate Israel in the international community. The highest-profile example was the United Nations' Goldstone Report, conducted by South African judge Richard Goldstone, which damaged Israel immeasurably. The report was such a disaster for Israel that in 2009 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it one of the three biggest threats Israel was facing, alongside a nuclear Iran and Palestinian rockets. The aftermath of Cast Lead also brought a renewed fervor to the Boycott Divestment Sanctions movement, which seeks to isolate and delegitimize Israel, and generally placed a harsher spotlight on Israeli efforts to deal with Hamas. In all, Israel beat Hamas on the battlefield but lost the war of public opinion, which in some ways was the more important one.

... The IDF is doing two things through its Twitter campaign that are replicating the same public relations mistakes it made the last time around. The first is a strategy of playing to its own base... Second, and more saliently, the reason Israel suffered so badly in the court of public opinion following Cast Lead is because there was a perception that Israel was callous about the loss of Palestinian life that occurred during that operation."

Indeed, the Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg refers to the IDF's war via Twitter as the "Hamasization" of Israel's public relations.

Hamas's propaganda is, if anything, even more aggressive and ham-handed, hence Goldberg's comment. The @alqassambrigade Twitter account is generally accepted as an English language outlet for Hamas's military wing (though there is some room for doubt) and has not only issued its share of chest-thumping and threats, but frequently inaccurate information. On Friday, the account falsely claimed that an Israeli jet had been shot down over Gaza.

More usually are simply absurd claims like this one from yesterday, saying the war is "going well in achieving historic goals, Liberation of occupied Palestine started ... we are coming IDF." Hamas does not have the ability to take any of the fight to the IDF, let alone defeat Israel.

In a nutshell, the propaganda campaigns are talking past each other, flying over the heads of anyone who could be reached by either side's message, and firing up their own already fired-up base.

That's a recipe for more war, not less.

Read Article in Christian Science Monitor

Israel's Iron Dome Has Intercepted More Than 150 Rockets

By RUSSELL GOLDMAN (@GoldmanRussell) Nov. 17, 2012

PHOTO: The Iron Dome defense system fires to interecpt incoming missiles from Gaza in the port town of Ashdod, Nov. 15, 2012.

Middle East on the Brink of War: Jerusalem Attacked

Israel said that it will install a fifth "Iron Dome" battery before the end of the year, adding another installation to the country's missile defence system, which has proven itself this week, intercepting more than 150 rockets fired from the Gaza Strip.

The missile defence system, which can identify enemy rockets, determine if they pose a threat to populated areas, and destroy them within a matter of seconds, has been praised by Israel's leaders for saving hundreds of lives.

The system, however, comes with a steep price. Each interceptor missile, which includes a radar guidance system, costs $40,000. Israel has not disclosed how many missiles are required to take down an enemy rocket or how many interceptors it has fired, but experts estimate the country has fired $8 million worth of missiles in the past three days.

The Israelis are only trying to shoot down about a third of the rockets fired by militants, those on a trajectory towards populated areas, said Ben Goodlad, a senior aerospace and defence analyst at IHS Jane's. But of the rockets Iron Dome has targeted, the system is between 87 and 90 percent successful in destroying.

"That is an incredibly high success rate for the system," he said. "What isn't clear is how many interceptor missiles are fired. There may be two, three, or four fired at a one time to take down a rocket."

Middle East on the Brink of War: Jerusalem Attacked Watch Video

Palestinian militants working out of the Gaza Strip, a ribbon of coastline controlled by Hamas, have for years been stockpiling short- and medium-range rockets, built at a fraction of the cost of the Iron Dome missiles and then stored in highly populated areas near hospitals and schools.

Hamas is considered by the U.S. and Europe Union as a terrorist organization.

Militants this week fired rockets further into Israel than ever before, targeting the country's two largest cities, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, but there were no casualties in those cities. Three Israelis were killed by rockets elsewhere in Israel.

"We are very pleased with the interception rates," aerial defence commander Brig. Gen. Shachar Shochet told reporters on Thursday. "We have intercepted dozens of Grad and Qassam rockets fired by Hamas and other groups, and prevented serious harm to our civilians."

Defence Minister Ehud Barak said the country the system had saved lives.

"No other country in the world has technology like the Iron Dome," Barak said. "Had the system not existed, many civilians would be in harm's way. However, the system is not a 100 percent foolproof defence, and does not absolve citizens of their duty to closely follow instructions given by Homefront Command."

The system is not perfect, and can be breeched by a large volley of rockets fired at once, a problem of "saturation," said former White House counterterrorism adviser and ABC News consultant Dick Clark.

Israel, therefore, plans to target the rocket stockpiles rather than continue to shoot down individual missiles. Israel has called up more than 60,000 reserve soldiers and appears to be planning a ground strike in Gaza soon.

Currently four mobile batteries equipped with sophisticated radar technology and missiles and on-board radar, are combined to create a shield over the country.

In 2006, 4,000 rockets were fired at Israel during a war with Lebanon that left 44 civilians dead. In response, the Israeli Defence Forces and Israeli defence manufacturer Rafael Advanced Defence Systems began developing Iron Dome.

In 2010, after tests proved effective, the United States began funding the program in part. Earlier this year, Congress authorized $600 million for the program, with instructions that the U.S. would eventually begin co-production of the system.

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Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to bomb Hamas militants will leave Israel more isolated, insecure, and alone.

 

By Janine Zacharia Posted Friday, Nov. 16, 2012, at 3:25 PM ET

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and damage in Gaza city following an Israeli air raid.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and damage in Gaza city following an Israeli air raid Photos by Jack Guez and Marco Longari, AFP/Getty Images.

Palestinian rockets are terrorizing Israeli towns. Israeli jets are pummelling the Gaza Strip. Thousands of Israeli reservists have been called up for a possible ground invasion. Twenty-one Palestinians, among them small children, and three Israelis are dead, and the toll is sure to rise. Four years after the Israeli military unleashed a punishing attack on Gaza, Israel and Hamas are once again on the brink of war.

The fresh round of Israeli reprisals follows an uptick in attacks from militant groups in Gaza. It began last Saturday with the firing of an anti-tank missile at an Israeli army jeep that wounded four soldiers. Several days of intensive rocket fire from Gaza followed. Israel responded by assassinating Ahmed Jabari, the head of Hamas’s military wing in Gaza, and launched an air campaign to try to destroy as many weapons depots as possible.

In 2012, there’s barely been a week when at least a handful of rockets haven’t been fired from Gaza into Israel. Every month or so there is an escalation, like during one six-day period in June when 162 rockets landed in Israel. “No government would tolerate a situation where nearly a fifth of its people live under a constant barrage of rockets and missile fire,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the foreign media on Thursday as he authorized more intensive strikes in Gaza.

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Netanyahu is surely right. Israel’s response to these ongoing rocket attacks is justified. But being justified isn’t the same thing as being smart. The truth is Israel has been engaged in a low-grade war with the Hamas leadership in the Gaza Strip for five years now, with no plan besides a misguided military strategy for how to end it.

To try to contain the threat, Israel has relied largely on periodic air strikes on weapons storage facilities and targeted assassinations of militants, which sometimes result in civilian casualties that radicalize the Palestinian population. It bombs the smuggling tunnels that run underground between Egypt and the Gaza Strip and are used to smuggle in civilian goods and weapons. The tunnels exist because of the strict blockade Israel enforces around the territory, choking off anything like normal commerce.

In four years, Israel’s playbook hasn’t changed. Nor did the Palestinian rockets ever truly end. But in the intervening years the world has changed. Most significantly, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who could ignore anti-Israel sentiment in his country, is gone. His successor, Islamist President Mohammed Morsi, may have more sway with Hamas, but he also has less power to resist Egyptian calls to sever ties with Israel.

Israel’s problems aren’t limited to its southern flank. The civil war in Syria is threatening to engulf Israel. Thousands of Jordanians are in the streets demanding King Abdullah’s ouster. Relations with Turkey remain frayed.

Israel is growing ever more isolated just as its regional position becomes more insecure.

About 1,400 rockets have been fired at Israeli towns since the end of its last full-scale military action in Gaza in January 2009.* The Israeli blockade of Gaza failed to prevent the smuggling of longer-range rockets that can now reach Tel Aviv. Hamas is still in power and has more international legitimacy than ever. The emir of Qatar became the first head of state to visit Gaza last month since Hamas seized control of the territory in 2007. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, still furious over Israel’s refusal to apologize for the killing of nine Turks on a flotilla filled with pro-Palestinian activists in 2010, is making plans to travel there. A senior Egyptian delegation visited Friday in a show of support.

Palestinian militant groups are clearly trying to drag Israel into an all-out war. An Israeli ground response “would be the best thing that could happen to Hamas,” the former head of Israel’s Shin Bet security service, Ami Ayalon, told Israel’s Channel 10 news Thursday night. “Hamas’s strategy is to draw the Israeli army into civilian areas, kill lots of Israeli soldiers, and declare victory.”

So that’s Hamas’s strategy. But what is Israel’s?

“We will put an end to this,” Moshe Yaalon, Israel’s deputy prime minister and minister of strategic affairs, declared Thursday. “We will not maintain restraint. If the terror organizations do not cease their fire, we will be prepared to toughen our response as much as necessary, until they say, ‘Enough!’ ”

If that is indeed what Netanyahu and his government have planned—and all indications suggest mounting military strikes on Gaza are imminent—then Israel’s response couldn’t be any less strategic. To be sure, Israel will once again achieve many of its short-term tactical goals, assassinating a handful of Hamas leaders, levelling militant safe houses, and eliminating scores of Hamas military installations or weapon depots. And, in the end, Israel will be no safer, although it will surely be more alone in the world and living in a neighbourhood that is less tolerant of its aggressive countermeasures.  

It’s time to declare Israel’s policy toward Gaza and Hamas a failure. This is not an anti-Israel statement. Rather, it is an honest acknowledgment of the facts, which are simply too numerous to avoid.

It may please some Israelis to hear tough talk from Yaalon and other senior officials, but there is no disputing that Israel’s military approach has failed to bring better results. It will not—as history has demonstrated—bring the security that Israelis crave.

Israel needs a far more sophisticated, diplomatic, long-term strategic policy for dealing with Gaza and all the threats around it—from Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and perhaps Egypt. A new Israeli approach may have to include a willingness to at least try talking to Hamas, which is fighting its own internal battle against even more radical, anti-Israel groups in the Gaza Strip. It may mean putting more pressure on Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, languishing in irrelevance in Ramallah, to make peace with Hamas so there can be negotiations with Israel and a permanent end to this rocket-war madness.

U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta put it plainly during a visit to the region last year.   “The question you have to ask: Is it enough to maintain a military edge if you’re isolating yourself in the diplomatic arena? Real security can only be achieved by both a strong diplomatic effort as well as a strong effort to protect your military strength.’’

In the spring of 2010, I asked one of Netanyahu’s top security advisers what Israel’s policy was toward Gaza. “What is it you don’t understand?” he replied, irritated. He didn’t care for my question because the answer seems self-evident to top Israeli officials: more of the same. If that remains the case, Israel’s newest military gambit was doomed before it even began.

Correction, Nov. 16, 2012: Due to a copy-editing error, this article originally stated that 14,000 rockets have been fired at Israeli towns since January 2009. About 1,400 rockets have been fired at Israeli towns.

View Article in Slate Magazine