Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Islamic State: an unlikely harbinger of peace?

By Shahram Akbarzadeh

It is in Iran's interest to put out the fire of sectarianism. Photo: It is in Iran's interest to put out the fire of sectarianism. (AFP: Al-Furqan Media)

The crisis in Iraq offers Iran and Saudi Arabia common cause for a mutually beneficial arrangement, and a rare opportunity to stabilise the region, writes Shahram Akbarzadeh.

The military advances of the Islamic State (or IS, formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) are seen as a very worrying development in the international media.

Predictions of doom and gloom abound, but the crisis in Iraq may provide the right push for a major regional shake-up and make the unthinkable possible: policy coordination between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

The establishment of the Islamic caliphate, encompassing parts of Iraq and Syria, presents a direct challenge to both. IS is their common enemy.

Ironically, a Saudi-Iranian rapprochement is more challenging than the much-anticipated normalisation of relations between the United States and Iran. That is because, as the two major Islamic states of the Middle East, they both claim the leadership role in the Muslim world. Such claims are exclusive and result in delegitimising the other.

The ideological wall between Iran and Saudi Arabia has been reinforced by the spread of sectarianism across the Arab world.

But no Saudi-Iranian rapprochement is possible while Iran is seen to be pulling the strings in Iraq. This may be a political caricature, but the Saudis see Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki as an Iranian puppet. Saudi Arabia holds an even dimmer view of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria.

This perception has fed Saudi Arabia's open hostility towards the Malaki government and facilitated the tacit endorsement of IS when it emerged in Syria.

Saudi Arabia's attitude towards IS has undergone a fundamental change as Riyadh has grown weary of the security risk posed by returning IS fighters. It has now banned Saudis from joining the war in an effort to curtail the recruitment of Saudi citizens by IS.

The formation of the Islamic caliphate elevates the challenge to Saudi Arabia from a potential security threat to an ideological battle.

The self-proclaimed caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi demands allegiance from all Muslims, dismissing other Muslim leaders as heretical and illegitimate - an obvious snub to the Saudi kingdom. The pride and joy of the kingdom is its position as the custodian of Islam's holy sites and the champion of the global Muslim community, the ummah. The Saudi leadership cannot tolerate this challenge from al-Baghdadi. But, its position in relation to IS is complicated by Riyadh's antipathy towards Malaki.

Malaki is proving to be a stumbling block in the formation of a regional and international alliance to address the IS threat.

Suggestions from Tehran that Iraq should form a government of national reconciliation to include the disaffected Sunni community signal that they in fact see Malaki as a liability and not an asset. This is a difficult test for the presidency of Hassan Rouhani. He needs to convince the Saudi leadership that Iran is not wedded to the Iraqi prime minister.

It is also in Iran's interest to put out the fire of sectarianism. Sectarianism undermines Iran's reach and the Iranian leadership has actively tried to transcend the confines of the Shiite sect when dealing with the Arab world.

However, the Syrian uprising highlighted a major drawback in Iran's policy. Shiite Iran had developed close links with Sunni Hamas and prided itself on forming an Axis of Resistance with Hezbollah, Syria and Hamas against Israel. But the escalation of sectarian conflict in Syria has split the axis and diverted attention from Israel. For Iran, sectarian cracks need to be repaired and the crisis in Iraq offers an immediate opportunity to do that.

There is a discernible degree of distrust between Iran and Saudi Arabia. But faced with a common enemy, the two states need to work together to save Iraq and prevent the spread of sectarian violence. Each has the means to influence potential allies in Iraq to explore a compromise, to form an inclusive government of national reconciliation. This would involve pushing Malaki aside; his record is too divisive. And the Iranian leadership has hinted at that possibility.

The crisis in Iraq offers Iran and Saudi Arabia common cause for a mutually beneficial arrangement; a rare opportunity to stabilise the region.

Shahram Akbarzadeh is Professor of Middle East and Central Asian Politics at Deakin University. View his full profile here. His research on this topic has been funded by the Qatar National Research Fund (NPRP grant 6-028-5-006). The statements made herein are solely the responsibility of the author.

Islamic State: an unlikely harbinger of peace? - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)