By Denis Dragovic Tuesday 11 November 2014
Photo: Australian special forces troops inside a Chinook helicopter. (Matt Brown: ABC, file photo)
With the US president in talks with coalition partners about increasing their commitment to the fight against Islamic State, Denis Dragovic outlines four events that could change the nature of the war.
In the ever-evolving Middle East crisis there are four possible game changers that will have a significant impact to the people of the region, foreign investors and travellers.
Australia's deployment of 600 personnel to the Middle East recognises the raised level of urgency that the threat of Islamic State poses to the region. Together with a coalition of regional and international forces military strikes, weapons supplies and humanitarian support are buttressing the efforts of local forces.
But the fluidity of the alliances, opaque interests of the key players, and the successes of Islamic State make the situation volatile and the risk for escalation high.
While the US president is in talks with coalition partners about increasing their commitment, here are four red flags that could signal a substantial escalation in the crisis.
1. PKK resumes insurgency within Turkey
The 30-year uprising of the Turkish Kurds that has killed an estimated 40,000 people has enjoyed a ceasefire for the past year as negotiations continue.
But the two groups most involved, the Turkish military and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), were both unimpressed by the Turkish government's recent stance towards the Syrian Kurds' Democratic Union Party (PYD) in the border town of Kobane.
Turkey's closing of the border precluding supplies and reinforcements entering along with a firm stance against any military support angered the PKK. The Turkish military was equally unimpressed when Turkey, under pressure from the international community, agreed to allow Iraqi Kurds to reinforce the Syrian Kurds. This mobilisation of reinforcements required the convoy of heavy weaponry and personnel to move through Turkey, but the military steadfastly refused to provide the necessary escort, which was instead managed by the internal intelligence agency.
An official or de facto resumption of the Kurdish uprising in Turkey will place pressure on Erdogan to end support to one of the few capable elements fighting Islamic State, the military arm of the PYD. The Turkish Kurds in turn may choose to expand their collaboration with the PYD to establish a Kurdish autonomous state in the border region of Syria and Turkey.
2. Islamists push into Lebanon
A silent front in the battle against the expansionist ambitions of Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) is being fought in Lebanon.
Surprisingly for a country that allows easy access to journalists, little has been said of the 30 kidnapped Lebanese soldiers, the execution of others, the small but significant number of defectors from the Lebanese army, and the rising death toll.
This is largely because the fighting has been limited to the border region and overshadowed by other events. With a million displaced Syrians living in Lebanon, 375km of shared border with Syria, and an aggrieved Sunni population, the country is ripe for an uprising of Sunni fundamentalists. Pockets of fundamentalists have fought against the Lebanese army, but their leaders have quickly been arrested, though the ideology and the political interests remain.
To date the uprising has largely been indigenous. But just as in Libya where IS sent a contingent led by a Yemeni deputy to consolidate the factions and successfully establish a toehold in the town of Darna, an appearance of foreign fighters will be an indicator of a shift by IS towards a more robust strategy targeting Lebanon.
3. Jabhat al-Nusra makes a play against Israel
Unusual for the history and context of the Middle East is that in this current crisis very little inflammatory rhetoric has been voiced against Israel. The enemies this time are Muslims wavering in their faith or alternative sects that don't abide by the true faith. Israel and more broadly Jews have largely been ignored.
But for how long can this last?
With the recent rise of IS as the perceived global successor to the jihadist movement, Al Qaeda is at risk of becoming an after thought. Its spectacular attacks in the past brought financial support and fighters to its affiliates around the world including JN.
Today, unable to sweep aside its rival rebels or the Syrian regime, the possibility exists for Al Qaeda's affiliate to make a play against Israel, not for tactical reasons, but driven by a global strategy to remain relevant.
To date Jabhat al-Nusra has been remarkably restrained in its actions on the Golan Heights, notwithstanding their attacks upon the Fijian and Philippine United Nations peacekeepers. Is this the calm before the storm?
4. Uprising in Jordan
Jordan is the Switzerland of the Middle East, it is where Saudi Arabian princes while away the hot summers, where Lebanese businessmen look for safe investments and Iraqi government officials move their families.
It is also the closest Arab friend that the United States has in the region.
At the same time, Jordan was home to the earliest incarnation of Islamic State, Jamat al-Tawhid wal-Jihad, established by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in 1999. According to the Jordanian Centre for Strategic Studies, 7 per cent of the population supports Islamic State and 17 per cent see Jabhat al-Nusra as a legitimate revolutionary force.
Increasing street protests, sit-ins or other public demonstrations would be indicative of an increased risk to Jordan's stability. Despite the effective infiltration of the various fundamentalist groups by the secret police, spectacular attacks have occurred in the past and a more coordinated uprising would cause considerable upheaval in the region.
Despite the headlines having moved on, the crisis in the Middle East is showing no signs of abeyance. These four red flags are warning signs for a potential deadly escalation.
Denis Dragovic is an international development expert and a lecturer at the University of Melbourne. View his full profile here.
Four threats to Middle East stability - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
